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The top goalscorer betting market is always a big one, but it is important to ignore the pundits picks on this one. Backing Messi, Rooney or Drogba, is all very well, but they are unlikely to produce what they do for their clubs on the International scene. It’s all about the number of games they will play and it’s important to pick a player that belongs to a team that is likely to be in the last 4 of the World Cup.
You will always hear the usual list of top strikers that have scored a lot of goals over the last 12 months, but you can actually get better value and better probability by looking further down the list of potential golden boot candidates.
So the golden rules for the golden boot are:
1. Do the obvious and pick a player that has the potential to be in the final. Too many people overlook this and either pick a player that they like or has produced in the past. An example is Didier Drogba. With the Ivory Coast in group G of death and having to play Portgual and Brazil, there is a possibility that he won’t even progress to the last 16. It is hard to see a player winning the golden boot in the group stage.
2. Go for an outsider because they are good value.
Since 1982 none of the pre-tournament favourites have won the golden boot. In ’82 Paolo Rossi had just returned from a 2 year suspension and scored 6 goals, in ’86 Gary Lineker was new to International football and scored 6, Salvatore Schillaci grabbed 6 for Italy in ’90, Oleg Salenko for Russia and Davor Suker and Croatia again both scored 6 in ’94 and ’98 besides being in the top 10 rather than top 5 favourites. In ’02 Ronaldo’s form meant he was far from favourite at (21.0) and in ’06 Klose was at odds of 26.0!
Tips: Robinho top scorer at around 36.0 / Robinho to be in the top 4 goalscorers at 8.0 @ Betfair, Klose to be in the top 4 goalscorers 4.6 @ Betfair
Long-shots: Nilmar 160.0, Sergio Aguero 190.0 or Diego Forlan 100.0 @ Betfair
You can read more about football betting on our site.
And if you are not sure about the golden boot outright, always check the odds in the top 4 goalscorers market because you could still get good odds.
