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The 2009/10 season saw the most goals scored in the Premiership for ten years – 1,053 to be exact, which is 2.77 per game! Chelsea became the first ever team to score more than 100 goals, while Manchester United and Arsenal both netted more than 80. Five players also managed 20 goals or more, a record in the history of the 20 team Premier League.
With so many opportunities, where should we look for value when Premier League betting on everyone’s favourite – the top scorer market?
First off a quick stat – on only five occasions in 15 seasons has a player won the golden boot while not playing for a top two team, and in the last 10 seasons there have only been two occasions. Also Cristiano Ronaldo is the only non-striker to have achieved the feat, although many classed him as a striker when his managed his 31 goals. These stats give you some initial help in narrowing down your selections – pick a striker and make sure they are from one of the top two teams, although it’s getting harder every year to predict who will be in the top two finishing positions at the end of the season. For more football betting tips on other markets check out the rest of the site.
Last years golden boot winner Didier Drogba (29 goals) is this year’s favourite at 1.7, while the runner up last year, Wayne Rooney is 6.6 to be the winner this year. Rooney emerged from the shadow of Ronaldo in 09/10 and proved that he had what it takes to be a top striker. However United played a lot of last season with Rooney on his own up front, allowing him plenty of opportunity to get goals. With the return of Owen from injury, the addition of Hernandez and a possibility that Berbatov is in a better vein of form, the goals could be spread a little further around the team this season. 6.6 just might not be good enough value to make this bet worth it.
Drogba has been top scorer twice. Before last season he won the golden boot in 2006/07 with 20 goals. However in both the seasons in between he scored less than 10 goals. His injuries and trips to the African Cup of nations every two years have hindered him. Having managed the top goalscorer title twice though, Drogba has a good chance to do it again. Just don’t overlook his Chelsea teammates Anelka and Lampard who are priced at 36.0 and 44.0.
The third favourite in the top goalscorer market, Fernando Torres has been plagued by injuries in almost every season. His first season at Liverpool saw him finish second to Cristiano Ronaldo, but since then every season has been a struggle for the Liverpool star. Although his talent is unquestionable, the odds of 9.4 are too low considering his injury record.
Robin van Persie is another injury plagued player and although he scores plenty of goals while he is playing, van Persie has played under 60% of matches during his Arsenal career. If he was a little more sturdy, his 12.5 price would be good value, but with the possibility of injury around every corner, it’s too risky.
Everyone says they have a possibility of winning the title, so we can’t leave Manchester City out of the equation. Due to their squad rotation, it’s impossible to predict who could be their top scorer this season, but last season’s top scorer Carlos Tevez (23 goals) is certainly a possibility. He is priced at 14.0 and if he does play the majority of games this is a good price to bet on. It remains to be seen though with so many striking options.
Darren Bent finished last season with 24 goals, behind Rooney and Drogba. He is 23.0 to be top goalscorer this season, but while 24 goals is a huge achievement, he is unlikely to challenge the other big names again this season while playing at Sunderland.
Jermain Defoe is an outsider for this bet and with 18 goals last season he was more than 10 behind the winner Drogba. The odds of 20.0 aren’t as good as what is being offered for Darren Bent, but at 4.8 he could challenge the top English goalscorer market which will be covered in the next article.
