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While the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea are disappointed if they don’t win the Premiership, some teams are just happy to stay in it.
There are a number of teams that struggle every season and their targets are to finish outside the relegation zone. This article looks at who could possibly be in the relegation zone come the end of the season in view of helping your with your Premier League betting.
Newly promoted teams
History says that a newly promoted team is more likely to stay in the Premier League than drop back down, with 53% of them staying up in since the Premiership became a 20 team league 15 seasons ago. To add to that, in the last two seasons just one of the three new teams has been relegated from the Premiership, and it has been one of the existing teams that have been relegated instead. This trend has actually occurred in 60% of the last 15 seasons so there is some hope for the new boys.
Of the three new teams in the Premiership this season Blackpool look the most likely to go down. They finished a massive 32 points behind Championship winners Newcastle last season and only got into the Premiership through the play-offs. Betfair have them priced at 1.24 to go down which makes them even more popular to go down than Burnley last year. West Brom are priced at 2.08 which looks a bit low considering the stats we talked about before, and Newcastle at 4.5 are priced quite high considering Wolves and Wigan are 3.2 and 3.6 to go down.
Last year’s survivors
In the past 15 Premier League seasons 40% of the relegated teams have come from the six teams above the relegation zone. Last season this six was Sunderland, Fulham, Bolton, Wigan, Wolves and West Ham. Last season the three W’s – Wigan, Wolves and West Ham were in the bottom three of these six teams. This is bad news for them as in the last ten seasons three quarters of the teams relegated from the six teams above the relegation zone have been the bottom three of those six. Unless these teams improve they could be in trouble. Wolves at 3.4 seem a good bet here, but watch out for West Ham (6.4) as they play Manchester United, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Arsenal in their first ten games of the season.
One last statistic for you now: Previous seasons show that finishing with fewer than 40 points gives you a 60% chance of finishing in the bottom five the next season. Wigan, Wolves and West Ham all finished with less than 40 points last season, so unless they improve their squads this time around they could be in for a worrying season ahead.
